Another dangerous virus

We have of course been justifiably concerned about the corona virus, but there is a second globally dangerous virus, and that is fake news.

Behavioural scientists at Cambridge University have found that disinformation spreads on social networks almost exactly as predicted by the epidemiology models of how biological viruses spread.

It’s clearly important that individuals are able to spot fake news, and in the same way that the impact of a virus is lessened by a vaccine, the equivalent in helping us spot what is and isn’t fake news is called ‘pre-bunking’.

The researchers found that fake news typically uses techniques such as polarising people, conspiratorial types of narrative, the use of emotion to persuade people, discrediting others, and impersonation.

They have therefore developed an online game, Bad News, to make you more aware of these techniques; it’s free and fun at https://www.getbadnews.com/#intro . Have a play and see what you think.

What I’ve also noticed in posts on social media is the frequent use of logical fallacies and misuse of statistics.

Many confuse posts confuse correlation with causation. Beware! Many years ago there was a correlation between the number of apples imported to the UK and the number of pregnancies each year. (If indeed there is a causative link, it will open a fascinating new field of biology!)

If you want a comprehensive view of logical fallacies, check out the work of Dr Madsen Pirie, founder of the Adam Smith Institute, who has written and lectured extensively on logical fallacies (you can see his talks on YouTube – well worth a look).

And as for statistics, I have never been able to take the stabilisers off my statistics bicycle; but even I can see some problems with the call to action from the apocryphal headline ‘Half population below average! Act immediately!’

Calvert Markham